Crude - 14/03/19

Crude - Last nights move to a new high for Oil after the recent production cuts finally extends the move up in Oil toward the next set of retracements and probably 61.8% at 63..60. Wave C will subdivide into 5 waves and we are in wave 3 of C. C=A goes as far as 66.90 This delays the next move lower for oil till patterns are complete.

Crude

Here is an alternate wave count to Crude that might fit the counter trend bounce and terminate it closer to the weekly Bollinger band at 62$. The channel for wave Y here goes to 61$. Two retracements are 59.70 at 50% and 63.60 at 61.85%

Crude

Crude - the entire rise marks as a-b-c-x-a-b-c, or w-x-y. A move below 57.66, and 56.70 would be a sign of a trend reversal into the next wave of the long term decline. the counter trend move up would be considered complete. 54.50 and 51.20 would be the first two swing support levels.

Crude

Oil prices are not a wedge. Next best alternate is A-B-C where wave C subdivides into 5 waves. Wave V of C is going on and the next hurdle is near 61.8% retracement at 63.50.

Crude

Oil is at the point where wave iii will be the shortest violating a rule. Above 64.60, the wave counts change to as follows. Wave C is extending and will add 2 more waves on the way up before completing a 5 wave advance in wave C. Also C=A is near 67.50 well above the 66% retracement mark. Sentiment on the daily sentiment index is at 89 and that puts us near overbought territory. But that has happened twice recently and we only got a brief pause in prices. The rally has gone much further than I expected but remains counter trend in nature longer term.

Crude

Oil hit 66% retracement. Wave wise based on my post two days ago one more push higher might still be on cards. But we are late in the game. If the fall in oil continues then crude could have topped out. The chart shows a channel at the end with the lower end at 61.50. That might be an important level to consider a trend reversal.

Crude

Oil needed that last push to complete wave V of C and it came today with news flow from Trump on Iran oil imports. C=A is at 67.71, and we crossed 65.50 today.

Crude

Oil's wave V is subdividing into 5 waves, when complete we can say that wave C is complete and we get a trend reversal at larger degree. 

Crude

I am watching out for one last push in crude prices toward C=A near 67.65, and that would be wave v of V of C and so the next trend reversal will on watch.

Crude

Crude Oil falling sharply intraday today. So there is a change in wave count, either wave C is complete or as shown below III of C is complete and we can dip to either 63.50 or 61.30 near the 20/40 day averages in wave IV and then wave V up can test the larger retracement near 69.60. If we break 61.30 then wave C up is over and the trend down longer term has resumed.

Crude

Crude closed down but just above the 40dema at 61.71, this should be a good support if wave IV is complete. Holding this one last push in wave V up to retest the 66.82 level is open. The rising channel goes as far as 68.80. A close below 67.71 would then set it up for the next major wave lower, a possible free fall in oil prices as the larger trend down resumes

Crude

Crude Oil prices did not close below the green 40dema. So this leaves open the case for wve V of C to form and push to 66.80 or a little higher in a final move to complete wave C of X up.

Crude

Oil did not manage to make that one last push to 66$, now the short term setup has alternates as the initial dip was not certainly impulsive. So maybe we are forming a triangle and we test 63.60 one more time to complete it, before heading lower. But if we break 61.30  and 60, then the larger decline for crude back to sub 40$ has already started. Final few gyrations left in oil I think before it joins the rest of the commodities lower. The upper Bollinger band t 64.60 is the next resistance.

Crude

Crude - prices broke down from wave B highs this week. The fall is steep enough to push weekly momentum back into sell mode, after a 70.70% retracement. Wave A broke down from a channel. Now wave C=A is at 36.50 and in the big picture the trendline of the lows goes all the way down to 23. The larger bias for crude prices remains bearish irrespective of how long it takes in making distribution patterns. But given the sell off in commodities the decline in crude was imminent and may have now started. Wave C will be a 5 wave decline from the recent high to 23, and we are in wave 3 of that decline now.

Crude

Oil's coming decline appears set to catch many unaware. Wave C mostly started is the best guess till proven otherwise. Lower tops and bottoms are forming. Resistance is near the averages agt 61.40. Once we break the 56.88 low made yesterday wave 3 would be extending toward the weekly Bollinger band near 51.70.

Crude On the Edge

I think the situation in Oil is serious. Note everyone is taking note but after yesterday's decline the trend is clearly down at larger degree. Oil has started a last and final collapse in wave C down like it did the last two times. Wave C will go to test the lower trendline near 23$ eventually in a 5 wave decline and we are now in wave 3 of that move. I can hope that prices will find support near 42$ for a third time but cannot count on it. 

The oversupply will finally reflect in prices then will impact the lower grade bond market severely. [HYG] The trends in Oil also have implications for equities eventually as I explained in my post over a week ago, chart below. Oil and equities are longer term positively correlated. The near term divergence that highlights the benefit of lower Oil prices could be temporary.

To really drill it in from a US stock market perspective here is the recent chart of Oil and the S&P index and you can see how close the recent tops and bottoms have been.