Long Short Updates - Indiacharts Insiders

Published: Wed, 05/29/19

The Truth About The Markets

+ Did you see it coming?

Two back to back Long/Short updates were sent out in the second week of May to Subscribers highlighting the possible move into the elections as markets were oversold. I did a podcast too following that on the same. The updates and indicators are posted below for your reading and learning. It is important as many believe that no one could have seen it coming. now let me admit you cannot know everything exactly and if you asked me i started off only expecting a retracement of the previous fall to 61.8% but we got a lot more. What is important is not the size or accuracy but being on the right side or knowing the odds at a point of time...

Client Positions

The Momentum swing was oversold and surprisingly on a day like today closed up at 14. So we look at the only indicator that feel deep into oversold, and is the client options positions. At +28% it is at the low end of the range since 2015. Many near term and medium term lows occured at this level. So at least a 1-2 day bounce can be anticipated here.

clientops 080519

Put Call Ratio

A 1-4 day type oversold reading is showing up. In an up trend it can also be an important low, but we will get clues to that only in the coming days. As of now the OI PCR below is below the red line

oi 100519

The 20 day A/D is coming close to the second red line and also getting oversold.

ad 100519

So while a minor wave iv bounce has already been discussed, the alternate scenario is that Nifty goes past 11500 and retests the highs in the wake of election results. The Nifty 500 chart below explains the alternate wave count that allows for this possibility without changing the long term picture of a distribution pattern at work. Will wave 5 of C be large enough to reach the top line or be truncated is another question we can ask. But a 5th wave cannot be ruled out, and would fit the event narrative. Once complete though it ends a long wave Supercycle.

nifty 500

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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
For accurate market forecasting. Market forecasting is a study of past data to assess future probable outcomes. It is our endeavor to discuss high probability outcomes for traders and investors. However this is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks futures or options or any security. Trading in any financial market should be done with sound knowledge and the help of a qualified investment adviser. Stocks based on the Elliott wave model are based on the Fibonacci fractal of the market and momentum indicators, Levels are based on Fibonacci maths and are only indicative of what the mathematical model throws up. This is not a research report. We are not investment advisors This is not a recommendation to buy/sell.
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Value Wave Stocks discusses the short term trading set ups that we use while taking our trading decisions. Value wave Investments. discusses the long term set ups that we use while taking our investment decisions. We hold investments in these stocks and are interested in these opinions. This is not the only reason considered while taking our actions. Kindly take the help of a qualified investment advisor before trading. Rohit Srivastava is a Fund Manager of a trading PMS fund at Sharekhan Ltd. that has active open long and short positions in the futures markets at any point of time. The opinions here are for your education and understanding only of how we identify stocks to trade/invest in. We change our opinion daily and even hourly. Any actions taken by you are at your own understanding and risk. We do not offer personalised advise or research of any kind.
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