CG Power The Fall Story

Published: Wed, 08/21/19

The Truth About The Markets

THE FALL GUY - CG POWER

It remains my objective to display the Use of Elliott Wave analysis in combination with Economic and Business cycles in making an objective analysis of the markets.

In fact it should put an end to the myth that TA is a tool for only short term forecasting but also covers long term trends upto any time frame where data is available

Today's Fall guy is CG Power - The updates below were published over the last one year and the last one was published on 21-June-2019 after the neckline broke pointing to odds of down to 6. We are at 11.85 today. Close, but the last two days were 20% down circuit days. All this with only data analysis and no crap of meeting company management and getting information from them as most fundamental analysts desire. It is my belief that the Balance sheet tells you everything you need to know. If the management is not telling you something there then that itself is a governance issue. The objective of the Annual report sent to shareholders is to communicate. Now if a management gives info to analysts before shareholders I think it is against investor interest right there. And yes amounts to insider information being given out illegally.This requires a very high level of trust to be displayed. The type that Infosys started out with when they were listed in 1994, a time when no company sent shareholders a report of funds utilised and quarterly updates on the business.

Standards need to be set.

Over to the Charts

CG Power

CG Power - completed a 5 wave decline and could start a bounce back. The question is how much. Big or small. Even a small 23.6% can mean going back to 48. The low made is 32.85. There is no way to know it will be larger.

cg151118

CG Power

CG Power recently bounced back from the neckline after a 5 wave decline but the bounce did not last. This 5 wave decline is now extending into an extended 5 wave decline that can have 5+4= 9 waves down or +4 = 13 waves down, till we reach the point C=A or the H&S projection. The neckline is at 33 and the projection is at 6-7 rupees. The recent high is at 43

cg 101218

CG Power

Once in a while I have to take an impossible view on things. And I do. So CG Power fell in 5 waves and has a small 3 wave advance inside a nice channel. Last few days prices started to fall from the pink channel. So B might appear small as the retracement is not more than 23.6%. But if that is what it is, that is what it is. Staying below 48 we are in wave C down where C=A goes to 15.70. Nuts. Who knows appears crazy.

cg 110119

Now the longer term chart might make it look believable. A h&s long term and we took support at the neckline. But now if we start to fall again and break the neckline then the head measures in pink down to 6. Yes 6 Rs. If this has to turn out to be true to the pattern.

cg 110119a

CG Power Update

My last post on this was on 11/01 at 43, and it fell to 20 after that, still I have panic emails and messages from people who want an update as they are short at all levels as it bounced back. In my world timing is everything. And I do not give investment advise. This is an elliott wave opinion and you need to know a few technical tools to execute and manage risk. One essential is know risk reward. Learn to use levels based on trendlines, moving averages and swing, as discussed in the Position sizing video.

Now th CG Power update - it fell in wave 1 of a new move from Jan and is bouncing back in wave 2 of that move. Wave 2's can be steep and it was. now it is close to the bollinger band and also 61.8% retracement at 37.57 and 66% at 38.66. These are the ideal levels for wave 2 to end but you need an actual price reversal and then the high would be the level to watch. From there we can then project 3=1. Will post again with those numbers once it is done..

cg010319

CG Power Update

CG Power has gone beyond 61.8% and toward the previous swing. A good wave count change is to consider that we are at wave IV of lower degree, with this change it looks like it. This means the next move down would be wave 5 of a larger 5 wve decline, with 47 being an important hurdle now.

cg200319

CG Power Update

CG Power - A change in wave count because it rallied above the Jan high. From 5 wave decline to A-B-C-X-A-B-C-X, and another A-B-C ahead, as we have fallen in 5 waves down marked as wave i down of a new wave. Wave iii down started as the wave i low was broken in today's trading. Each segment broke the previous swing low so I would expect wave C low at 21.40 to be at risk of breaking. The neckline of the long term supports is at 34, below which we are in free fall territory.

cg 180419

CG Power Update

CG Power - is now back below the yellow neckline of the Long term Head and shoulders pattern. This decade long pattern is truly epic and once in a lifetime. The neckline is at 34.25. Here wave wise we are in wave C and wave V of C, where C=A is at 20.50. But wave C may extend more and we do not know that. What we do know is that H&S pattern implications are for the size of the head below the neckline, and that goes to around 6 Rs. Wave V down has subdivided into i-ii-iii so far so not over.

cg 240619

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