Nifty Medium Term

28 Mar 2020

The weekly Elliott Wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt of our observations from recent publications.

MEDIUM TERM

NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE 

After a prolonged downtrend the weekly RSI is very oversold and everyone is looking for the market to bounce back because of the stimulus by all central banks. However this time most oversold readings have not worked and gone to levels not seen in decades or ever. So it is not done till it is. The steepest decline in years should bring about a long overdue mean reversion in volatility. That for directional traders is a good thing. Of course the current level of volatility is off the charts but that is how change takes place...  READ MORE 

THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- 

Dollar Index

Central banks around the world are putting up a fight to keep their economies afloat and in doing so are causing dollar volatility to explode. Now it has broken out of both sides of the 1 year expanding range and with no follow through. But eventually a trend must emerge and they will have to deal with it. Rotational devaluations are keeping it in a range for now. The monthly candle is going to be a 'dragon fly doji' if you know what that means. A rare bar with a long upper and lower shadow. My wave markings are now biased to the upside unless proven otherwise by a sustained decline. A 50% retracement is done in what could be wave 2 down.

BitCoin

Bitcoin after a long time, and it is starting to look like a large triangle since the 5th wave ended. A topping pattern or a 4th wave consolidation? Triangles do occur in 4th waves but given the bubble at the end of this wave with mom and pop participation I wonder if this is too early for the come back. This bubble will pop before the government takes it over. In the meantime one more move to 11000 and back to 4100 could be on the cards. Not yet time to break out of this range till we complete 5 waves of a triangle.

USDINR

USDINR - I may consider this wave count change back to where it was a week ago, because of a couple of factors. The record high OI into April series with a record premium. The RSI negative divergence on the daily chart and the daily momentum which has crossed over to the sell side. In short wave 1 maybe complete and we are correcting in wave 2 down in a-b-c that can retest the 73.75 mark in wave c down near the 40dema. Some consolidation will be good for the larger trend which is still up. This will be subdividing wave 3 into wave 1 of 3 now and 2 of 3 down. The next move will be 3 of 3 up later.