IC Updates - Bonds Shanghai Copper Metals

Published: Sat, 01/16/21

Dear ,

The second time the Nifty RSI crossed 81 in a month and the Nifty got whacked. This even as bond yields got whacked and the dollar bounced. But it is not clear if the dollar can make a bigger move yet. The real question on my mind is "Are we getting a market top like last year ahead of the budget this year itself" Watch key near term support levels closely for this as budgets are often emotional periods and get wild reactions. Rising yields only reflect the reflation in asset prices that has already taken place and at this point maybe less of a worry but a dollar above 91 would stoke some worry across financial assets and the metals sector. Here are some charts from this weeks posts in case you missed them.

Rohit Srivastava

The Truth About the Markets

US 10 year Notes

The short-term bounce back in the US 10 year bond prices after the recent decline looks likely in wave II of 3. Note wave 1 was a leading diagonal, followed by wave 2 which was mostly sideways. Wave 3 may now subdivide into 5 waves before it is complete and involves eventually rising yields in the coming months.

Copper

My working presumption for copper is that the recent correction is minor wave ii of 5. This means that wave 5 is subdividing as long as we take support at the 20 DMA on a closing basis which is at $ 3.587

Shanghai Composite

The Shanghai Composite completed a 5 wave advance and achieved the point where wave 3 is equal to wave 1. Will another consolidation follow or will wave 3 extend with smaller pullbacks needs to be seen.

Nifty Metals Index

As we get close to a point where wave 3 circle is equal to wave 1 circle at 3722 on the nifty metals index, the metals index has been flat for 5 days and what might mostly be wave 4 formation that took its own time. The last push higher in wave 5 of 3 should complete the 5th wave for this pattern in the coming week after which we may anticipate a slightly deeper correction if possible.

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Rohit Srivastava
www.indiacharts.com
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