The follow-up question to any view on a strong rupee [or a bearish view on USDINR] is what will be the impact on IT stocks [or pharma]. I will address the IT sector with charts, presume the same for Pharma. I have done these charts before and videos on them but still the question will persist from newbies and people not exposed to such analysis, or those biased by news reports written by news feed writers and not market analysts.
So when was the last time we had a bear market in USDINR? 2002-2008, the chart is below along with the IT sector index. The chart speaks for itself, so much for misleading correlations. The IT index went up but less than other sectors so I would not invest in IT during that phase. But a falling USDINR is associated with bull markets in stocks and equity, so you cannot have the whole market going up and IT stocks going down, that will never happen. You can have a
relative outperformance of one sector over the other.
Ok but when USDINR goes up it is very good for IT stocks right? Wrong. The chart below shows a rising USDINR during 2000-2002 during the Y2K Bear market. A rising USDINR has always been associated with bear markets in stocks. The benefit of the weaker currency if any is only felt after the bear market is over. But during the time when the currency devaluation is going on for whatever reason. IT stocks decline in sympathy with the equity market.
"But sir, Y2K was the tech bubble bursting this is not always right?" So if I take the 2008 bear market it won't be fair because "Sir, that was the Great Recession from the Housing Bubble", so let us take an unusual period. 2011-2013, when the USDINR went from 44 to 69, now everyone knows that period. After we hit 69, Dr. Raghuram Rajan was brought in to manage the RBI. So didn't IT stocks rally during that phase, they should have right 56% rise in currency = lots
of IT export profits? So why did the IT index shown below go flat for the entire period, and then take off only after we stopped going up? Same reason as explained in the previous paragraph. "The benefit of the weaker currency if any is only felt after the bear market is over. But during the time when the currency devaluation is going on for whatever reason. IT stocks decline in sympathy with the equity market.", and, " The benefit of the weaker currency if any is only felt after "
Let me then end with the current market scenario and a chart of the last 18 months. USDINR was going up and the IT index was in the doldrums. Now the USDINR is going down since March 2020, and IT stocks are on a roll. Extrapolate that into the future, expect no different. USDINR goes to 69-66, IT stocks will keep rising even if the pace slows down, they will go on because that is just history repeating itself.
