The Nifty Midcap 100 FREE, rose in 3 waves and then fell in a flag and broke out. The flag is mostly an x wave and flags or triangles precede final moves. So the X wave up from the Feb low is still forming and can push higher to near the wave B high which is also 78.6% retracement of the entire fall near 15588.

The Dow in its big picture is now facing the big debate between Analysts and it is very similar to the one you May see a few have on the Nifty. I have marked the Nifty top as wave 5 but there are many calling the recent bear market wave 4. Similarly for long EWI also called the rise corrective and has now opened up to the alternate that wave 4 formed and 5 up maybe pending. I constantly have this discussion with my technical team as well and we do tend to differ.

Winter Chills continue in economic data and this time it is not Europe or the EM world alone it is everyone. Yes the same old NPA problem is not one that is only for India Or Brazil to foster. The US recently reported the highest delinquencies since 2009. Bank credit turning bad is a global trend. So here a chart for China that was just put out by Hedgeye.com and it shows how they have done too. Everyone is coming out of the woods with bad loans that are putting the banking sector deep in the red. Yesterday I read that almost 40% of Italian loans are now bad. I do not know how this ends but it is in the data.

Crude has been in the news a lot for making small 10-20 cent moves to a new high but really there is little progress. Now after a negative divergence in momentum the indicator crossed back to the sell side. Crude also closed down for the day completing 5 waves in wave c of Y. So a complex double zigzag can be marked to complete the entire rise from the bottom [or the earlier expanded flat shown in grey is also valid], What is important is that this top is near a key resistance level, the 66% retracement of the previous decline and the Oct 2015 high near 50.80$. So watch if the first swing low of 47.40 breaks as s first price confirmation of trend turning down towards 44.22 n ear the 40dema. Once 44.22 breaks we should see a deeper cut in price.

I called the bull market in gold within a day of wave e as I was tracking the ending very closely. What we are seeing now in the face of a rising dollar is simply a wave 2 correction which may not be complete. But this is not the resumption of a bear market in Gold. That is yesterday's story. Gold remains in a bull market.

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