Not only is US core CPI trending higher; the dollar uptrend has given way to a downtrend, implying the end of low headline CPI. The result could be CPI above 4% by 2017. The psychological effect of 4%+ CPI, combined with timid action by the Federal Reserve on rates, could represent a ‘tipping-point’ in public inflation expectations. Once this occurs, there is a risk that economic behavior changes in unpredictable ways that can damage real potential economic growth. Investors should prepare accordingly. |