You often hear the argument about the USDINR going up driving tech stocks or the INR getting stronger driving down IT stocks. in the near term I often think that argument does not hold because the USDINR mostly goes up when fund flows are negative into equities and so it involves selling pressure on stocks. So Tech stocks are unlikely to go up during an equity decline. But later once the devaluation is done there is a stimulative impact. So the right way to look at it might be longer term trends of the dollar. Even better how do tech stocks do relative to the Sensex during such a period. I have never liked the street argument that favours investment in tech stocks as a defensive? A growth sector is now a defence against a poor market? Has that really worked? During 2003-2008 the last bull market the IT sector was one of the worst performing sectors, in the sense that on a relative basis they did not go up as much as the Sensex.
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