Most Important updates this week

Published: Fri, 02/23/18

February 24, 2018 View in browser

Metals and IT are holding out against a weak market. A bounce likely but might soon be stock specific. Commodity prices are still holding their own as dollar bulls are confused as to why the DXY keeps falling along with the bond market. Focus. If you missed it start my 13 minutes rant on Gold that I recorded for Sharekhan.

And yes India is entering its very own personal debt crisis.

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Get an insight into why you should consider investing in precious metals as an asset class in 2018 over buying the commodities itself for the overall well-be...

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I have warned continually that the Sovereign Debt Crisis will unfold not so much by people selling government debt, but by the lack of people buying new debt.

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Trendlines and Trend Channels are basic tools that all budding technical analysts can adopt. The new and increasing interest in charts among market participants has them looking for the holy grail and they often ask questions like “which moving average do you use’’. The right answer is that it does not matter.

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Given My long term obsession with calling a top to the IT sector, the recent rally did take out the previous high in the sector index so I have made changes to the wave count and it allows for wave 5 to complete a new high for the index. This puts two numbers for the upside 38.2% of [1-3] points to 13634 which is almost reached and then 0.618% of the same would project to 18800. The higher target puts us closer to the upper end of the blue channel and keeps wave 3 from becoming the shortest in the structure. This leaves open some upside potential for tech stocks on the table in a generally weak market.

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Minor wave ii is complete and prices managed to hold the 20/40 day averages for support on closing basis. iii=i points to 3.40$ next. In Mcx price terms the support is 452 and wave iii can go to 486.

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The CRB index - has been holding on the rising channel from the jun 2017 low. That is line with the view on crude oil. Prices did fail to breakout from the yellow trendline of previous swing highs, but holding the rising channel the odds for a breakout eventually are bright. Once done we should be seeing much higher Oil and commodity prices. In other words the rising bond yields so far have not dented the underlying trend for commodity prices or maybe inflation in the months ahead.